Putin's Gains: Analyzing the Implications of Austria’s Election Results

In 2018, Austria's former foreign minister, Karin Kneissl, made headlines with a long curtsy to a smiling Vladimir Putin at her wedding, a moment that seemed innocuous at the time but now echoes with significant implications. Fast forward to the present, and the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO), which appointed Kneissl, has achieved a historic victory in the recent general election under the leadership of Herbert Kickl. While Kickl celebrates this triumph, the true victor appears to be Putin, whose influence seems to be bolstered by the FPO’s “friendship pact” with his United Russia party.

The FPO's alignment with Putin is evident; during Volodymyr Zelensky's address to the Austrian parliament last year, FPO members protested, claiming it violated Austria's constitutional neutrality—a stance that raises questions about their true loyalties. Historically, Austria's ties with Moscow have been stronger than those of many European nations. Its policy of permanent neutrality was a cornerstone of the negotiations that led to the withdrawal of Allied troops in 1955, a decision that kept Austria out of NATO, even as neighboring countries like Sweden and Finland shifted their positions post-Ukraine invasion.

While Austria is part of the EU and has provided financial aid to Ukraine, its neutrality has come under scrutiny. The FPO has criticized the outgoing government for its "anti-neutrality policy" due to its support for EU sanctions against Russia. With Kickl at the helm, the future of Austria's stance toward Moscow may be at risk, potentially jeopardizing the EU's collective efforts against the Kremlin. If a coalition government led by the FPO emerges, the likelihood of measures against Russia being obstructed or diluted has increased significantly, which could reshape Austria's role in European geopolitics.

EU sanctions necessitate unanimous approval from all 27 member states, meaning that any obstructive moves by Austria could significantly slow down efforts to assist Kyiv. The Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) is expected to form a new coalition government with the center-right People's Party (OVP). This partnership marks a notable shift, as it will be the first time the FPO takes the lead in such an alliance, despite its historical ties to Austria’s conservative establishment. The FPO, founded in the 1950s by former Nazis, has often been seen as the more extreme faction in Austrian politics.

While some analysts speculate that coalition negotiations might temper FPO leader Herbert Kickl’s more radical policies, the party is likely to pull the government further to the right on issues like immigration and its stance on Ukraine. The rise of far-right parties across Europe, such as those in France, Germany, and the Netherlands, has resulted in increased crackdowns on migration, positioning hard-right ideologies firmly within the European mainstream. Unlike their counterparts, Kickl and the FPO have not distanced themselves from their previous admiration for Putin, which contrasts with leaders like Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders, who have made efforts to rebrand their parties.

The FPO’s agenda promotes a “Fortress Austria” approach to immigration, a crackdown on what it terms “political Islam,” and the implementation of policies that are hostile to LGBTQ+ language. Its newfound success could embolden other pro-Putin factions across Europe, encouraging them to openly criticize NATO and advocate for a more appeasing stance toward Russia. While Austria alone may lack the influence to shift the EU's support for Ukraine, a Chancellor from an FPO-led government would likely find an ally in Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, further complicating the EU's unified response to the Kremlin.

Mr. Orban has consistently criticized EU sanctions, maintained a relationship with Putin since the invasion, and has become a significant obstacle for Mr. Zelensky. He expressed enthusiasm over the FPO's recent electoral victory, which strengthens the ranks of an anti-Ukraine bloc in Europe. This bloc includes figures like Robert Fico, the pro-Putin Prime Minister of Slovakia, who shares similar sentiments. Additionally, Andrej Babis, the former Czech Prime Minister known for his sympathetic views toward Putin, appears poised for a political comeback after his party secured the most seats in recent Senate elections.

All three leaders advocate for appeasement, declining to supply Ukraine with weapons, opposing sanctions, and calling for immediate peace talks that would likely favor Russia. Hungary, once considered Europe’s weak link, is now growing in influence over Central and Eastern European states as the war in Ukraine continues and the cost of living crisis intensifies. The shifting political landscape suggests a rising tide of skepticism towards Ukraine’s plight, posing significant challenges for the EU’s unified response to the ongoing conflict.

The emergence of an anti-Ukraine bloc within Central and Eastern Europe, bolstered by the FPO's electoral success, signals a troubling shift in the region's political dynamics. As leaders like Orban, Fico, and Babis advocate for appeasement and oppose sanctions, the unity that the EU has worked to maintain in supporting Ukraine is increasingly at risk. This trend not only undermines the collective response to Russian aggression but also emboldens far-right parties across Europe that share similar pro-Putin sentiments. The potential for these factions to influence policy decisions further complicates the geopolitical landscape, making it imperative for the EU to navigate this evolving challenge with strategic caution and resolve.