Moscow's Strategic Maneuvers: Experts Issue Warning on Potential Moldova Invasion
The Kremlin is using “very similar” rhetoric towards Moldova as it did before its invasion of Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War reported. The think tank says Moscow’s methods are “likely” designed “to set conditions to justify possible future Russian escalation against Moldova”.
Addressing the Transnistria conflict yesterday, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, made a series of allegations that mirror those directed at Ukraine ahead of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its full-scale invasion. His allegations included falsely claiming that the US and EU control the Moldovan government. He also claimed that there are about 200,000 Russian citizens in Transnistria, and that Russia is “concerned about their fate” and “will not allow them to become victims of another Western adventure.”
The Kremlin has used the idea of protecting its “compatriots abroad” to justify Russian occupation of Transnistria since 1992 as well as its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the ISW reported. “The timing of a possible Russian hybrid operation in Moldova is unclear, but the Kremlin is setting informational conditions to make it possible soon,” it said.
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• Ukraine has rushed more soldiers to the embattled eastern city of Avdiivka, the Ukrainian military said, describing the situation there as “hell”. Kyiv has redeployed the Third Separate Assault Brigade to strengthen Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka, the unit posted on Telegram. After arriving in the city, some battalions of the Third Assault Brigade raided the Russian-held parts of the city, inflicting “critical losses” to two Russian brigades, the unit said. However, it described the situation in the city as “extremely critical” and said that Russia was throwing more resources at capturing the city. Russian forces have been storming the city in the eastern Donetsk region since last October and have surrounded it on three sides, with reports of street fighting reaching the outskirts in recent days.
• Ukrainians overwhelmingly trust the former armed forces chief over his newly-appointed replacement as confidence in president Zelensky drops, a survey has found. Just 40 per cent of Ukrainians trust general Oleksandr Syrski, the new Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, while 94 per cent trust Valery Zaluzhny, his predecessor, according to the study.
Following months of speculation about a growing divide between him and President Zelensky, General Valery Zaluzhny was dismissed last week, sparking widespread reactions across Ukraine. The former commander, who enjoys considerable popularity in the country, faced an outpouring of support, while his replacement encountered resistance within military circles.
A recent survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology sought to gauge trust in Ukraine’s leadership following Zaluzhny's dismissal. Quizzing 1,202 Ukrainian citizens between February 5th and 10th, the study revealed a significant shift in public sentiment. With Zaluzhny's departure, trust in President Zelensky dipped by five points, now resting at 60 percent among respondents.
In a separate incident, Polish farmers staged a dramatic protest in the western city of Wroclaw, targeting a European Commission office with a barrage of eggs. The demonstration, as reported by the state news agency PAP, centered on EU agricultural policies allowing inexpensive grain imports from Ukraine. Approximately 1,000 farmers and 500 tractors converged outside the regional government headquarters, igniting flares and kindling a bonfire in protest against measures aimed at addressing climate change and rising costs, which they attribute to unfair competition from abroad.
While the demonstration in Wroclaw was swiftly disbanded by organizers, plans for further action loom large. The farmers intend to implement a total blockade of all border crossings with Ukraine and stage a significant protest in the capital, Warsaw, slated for February 20th.
Meanwhile, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan reiterated his country's commitment to mediating between Russia and Ukraine to broker a "fair" peace deal. Expressing readiness to facilitate dialogue between the two nations, Erdogan emphasized the importance of a solution-focused approach devoid of external influences. Turkey's persistent advocacy for peace talks mirrors similar calls from other nations, including China and Hungary.
Tragically, five individuals, including a one-year-old child, lost their lives in a Ukrainian missile attack on Russia's southern city of Belgorod, Russian officials confirmed. Vyacheslav Gladkov, the regional governor, reported that 18 others sustained injuries, including five children. Roman Starovoit, governor of the neighboring Kursk region, detailed the impact of the attack, which targeted a shopping mall, an outdoor sports facility, and residential areas, though an official death toll was not immediately provided.
According to a correspondent from the defence ministry-owned Zvezda television channel, six individuals lost their lives in the vicinity of the Magnit shopping center. However, the news outlet Mash reported the total death toll at nine. Social media posts shared video footage and photographs depicting a building adorned with the Magnit logo, its windows shattered, alongside blown-out windows of nearby apartment complexes. As of now, there has been no immediate comment from Kyiv.
In another development, Hungary has once again obstructed a package of European Union sanctions against Moscow, a move further complicating efforts to aid Ukraine’s war effort, as reported by the Financial Times. At a recent meeting of EU ambassadors, Hungary stood alone in opposing the sanctions package, which targets nearly 200 individuals and entities from Russia, China, and other countries deemed to be supporting Moscow’s war endeavors. The EU seeks to push through its 13th package of sanctions against the Kremlin ahead of the two-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The proposed measures are accompanied by a £43 billion support package for Ukraine and a proposal to requisition profits from seized Russian assets. "The Hungarians did not agree due to Chinese companies," explained one official to the FT.
Additionally, a fire erupted at an oil depot in Russia’s Kursk region following a Ukrainian drone strike, according to the local governor. Footage of the blaze captured what seemed to be an explosion at the facility in Polevaya, a village situated 90 miles from the Russian-Ukrainian border, with flames engulfing the building and plumes of black smoke billowing into the air. The attack, reportedly carried out by two drones, caused no casualties, affirmed Roman Starovoit, the local governor. The strike ignited three fuel tanks, prompting 165 individuals to engage in firefighting efforts to contain the blaze. Ukraine has recurrently utilized drone attacks to target Russian energy infrastructure in recent months, posing a dual threat to Russia’s energy security and necessitating a "significant diversion of resources" from Russia, as reported by Meduza.
In a separate development, Lord Cameron reiterated his call for Congress to pass a $95 billion aid package, including assistance to Ukraine, cautioning that China "will be watching.
Following its passage through the Senate earlier this week, a pivotal bill now faces significant hurdles in the House, with leading Republicans, influenced by Donald Trump, expressing opposition. At a conference in Poland, the British Foreign Secretary emphasized the vital partnership between Europe and the US in supporting Ukraine against Russia, labeling Vladimir Putin as a "similar aggressive dictator" to Adolf Hitler. Lord Cameron warned Washington about the implications of withdrawing support for Ukraine, cautioning that such actions would be closely observed by rivals globally. "It’s not just a European issue; there will be other people watching what the Americans do. They will be watching in China. They will be watching in Iran. And every country around the world will be watching to say are we, these Western countries, reliable allies," he remarked.
Reports from Bloomberg suggest that Donald Trump is contemplating reducing commitments to certain NATO members and advocating for Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war with Russia should he return to power later this year. His allies have discussed a two-tier NATO alliance, wherein only nations meeting defense-spending targets would be protected by Article 5, the collective security pledge. Additionally, discussions have revolved around convening Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin for negotiations soon after the election, should Trump emerge victorious, potentially disrupting decades of US policy and fracturing a defense alliance integral to European security since the Cold War.
In a separate development, the Élysée Palace announced that French President Emmanuel Macron would sign a security agreement with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris on Friday. Although specific details were not disclosed, Macron had previously mentioned negotiations for a bilateral deal akin to the one Ukraine secured with the United Kingdom, which guarantees security assurances for the next decade.
Furthermore, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is scheduled to visit Germany and France on Friday for discussions with leaders Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron, as Ukraine seeks to access billions of dollars in Western aid to bolster its troops on the battlefield.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine is slated to embark on a diplomatic visit to Germany and France on February 16th, where he will engage in discussions with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron," announced Mr. Zelensky's office in a statement. Additionally, Mr. Zelensky is scheduled to deliver an address at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, during which he will hold talks with US Vice President Kamala Harris, as confirmed by Kyiv.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin swiftly dismissed US warnings regarding the threat of Russian nuclear weapons in space as a "malicious fabrication" orchestrated by the White House to coerce US lawmakers into approving further aid for Ukraine. Following reports from the White House to Congress and European allies regarding intelligence on a "serious national security threat" posed by Russia's development of a space-based nuclear weapons program, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refrained from commenting until the White House revealed specific details. Nevertheless, Peskov asserted that the White House's warning was evidently aimed at securing additional funding from Congress. Sergei Ryabkov, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, echoed similar sentiments, accusing the United States of engaging in "malicious fabrication," as reported by TASS.
US intelligence indicates that Russia seeks to deploy a nuclear weapon into space, posing a significant national security threat by potentially targeting Western satellites and disrupting communications and military targeting systems, as highlighted by Rozina Sabur. President Joe Biden has faced mounting pressure to declassify US intelligence on the matter, which has been shared with every member of Congress. While the threat is deemed "grave," it is not considered "immediate," according to sources within the White House.
In a parallel effort, Britain has announced plans to supply thousands more drones to Ukraine as part of a £200 million support package, as disclosed by the Ministry of Defence. This drone initiative, co-led with Latvia, underscores a collective endeavor to bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities and thwart President Putin's "illegal and barbaric ambitions," affirmed Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary.
As he prepared for meetings with allies in Brussels and Munich this week, Vladimir Putin made a significant statement, suggesting that Joe Biden would be a more favorable US president for Russia compared to Donald Trump. Putin characterized Biden as "more experienced and predictable," marking his initial involvement in this year's presidential election amid escalating tensions between Democrats and Republicans over Washington's efforts to increase aid to Ukraine.
In a state television interview, when pressed to choose between Biden and Trump, the Russian president deemed the incumbent as "more experienced, predictable, an old-school politician," asserting that Russia would cooperate with any US leader who garners the trust of the American people. Putin's remarks followed President Biden's recent accusation against Trump of "bowing down to a Russian dictator," as he implored Republicans in Congress to defy Trump and back increased funding for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Russia launched a barrage of missile attacks across Ukraine overnight, resulting in casualties and significant damage. At least four individuals were killed and nine injured in the strikes, which targeted seven Ukrainian regions, including Kyiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Lviv, according to Ukrainian military sources. The assaults left a trail of devastation, with casualties reported in Kharkiv, Lviv, and Zaporizhzhia, including damage to residential buildings, schools, and infrastructure facilities.
Despite the onslaught, Ukraine's air defense managed to intercept 13 out of 26 Russian missiles, thwarting all strikes on the capital city, as confirmed by the air force.
In a separate development, The Telegraph's "Ukraine: The Latest" podcast team is set to conduct a live recording at the US Embassy in London at 6:30 pm (UK time) this evening. Hosts David Knowles, Francis Dearnley, and Dominic Nicholls, along with special guests, will delve into the latest developments from the conflict in Ukraine, coinciding with the approaching second anniversary of Russia's invasion. The event is exclusive to Telegraph subscribers.
In conclusion, the geopolitical landscape surrounding Ukraine remains fraught with tension, as evidenced by Vladimir Putin's remarks on the US presidential election and the recent escalation of missile attacks across Ukrainian territory. The contrasting dynamics between the US administration's stance on supporting Ukraine and Russia's military actions underscore the complex interplay of interests in the region. As discussions continue among global leaders and the conflict persists, the need for diplomatic solutions and international cooperation becomes increasingly imperative to mitigate further escalation and promote stability in the region.
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