Saturday, 18 May 2024

Resilience in the Market: Anticipating the Recovery of Britain's Smaller Stocks and the Strategic Advantage of Our Portfolio

Resilience in the Market: Anticipating the Recovery of Britain's Smaller Stocks and the Strategic Advantage of Our Portfolio
Friday, 17 November 2023 14:12

"Strategic Optimism: Navigating the Current Challenges in Smaller Stocks for Future Portfolio Gain"

Investors in smaller companies may be grappling with disappointment as the FTSE Aim All-Share index experiences a 15% decline since the year's commencement, in stark contrast to the 2% dip in the FTSE 100. The flight of nervous investors towards larger companies and the allure of mainstream assets such as cash and bonds, fueled by interest rate rises, have contributed to the struggle of smaller stocks. Britain's high inflation and sluggish economic growth further dampen sentiment, particularly for London-listed smaller companies dependent on domestic demand.

Questor’s Inheritance Tax Portfolio, formed approximately six years ago, reflects the broader downturn, with a 6% decline in its Aim stocks. Nonetheless, this outperforms the FTSE Aim All-Share index, which has plummeted by over 30% during the same period. Importantly, brighter prospects loom on the horizon for smaller companies. The anticipated end of the era of high inflation and interest rate increases, coupled with a more lenient monetary policy, is poised to stimulate the economy and bolster sentiment toward Britain's smaller enterprises. With this outlook, a significantly improved performance is expected from the IHT portfolio in the years to come.

Noteworthy exceptions within the portfolio, such as Tristel, shine amid market challenges. As a supplier of disinfectant products to hospitals, Tristel's shares have surged by 70% since their inclusion in the portfolio in December 2018. The recently released full-year results underscored a robust performance with a 16% YoY sales increase and a 39% surge in adjusted earnings per share. Encouragingly, the gross profit margin rose to 81%, enabling a 10% dividend increase, resulting in a 2.5% yield. With 17% growth in overseas sales, particularly in the key US healthcare market following approval by America’s drugs regulator, Tristel is positioned for international dominance, offering a beacon of success amid the current market challenges."

"Contrasting Fortunes: Tristel's Resilience and FD Technologies' Challenges in the Questor IHT Portfolio"

Tristel, the supplier of disinfectant products to hospitals, has showcased resilience amid market challenges, evident in its annual results and robust financial position. With a modest net cash balance, Tristel remains well-positioned for further investments in its product pipeline, demonstrating its capacity to navigate global economic uncertainties. Despite trading at 39 times earnings, the company's growth potential has amplified following a favorable decision by the American regulator, presenting an optimistic outlook. While the share price multiple of forecast earnings is around 32, Tristel continues to offer promising prospects for capital growth, securing its ongoing presence in the Questor IHT portfolio.

On the flip side, FD Technologies has encountered a significant decline, with its shares plummeting by 78% since joining the portfolio in June 2018. The software company's half-year results reveal a 3% decline in revenue compared to the previous year, accompanied by a shift from underlying earnings per share of 14.2p to a loss of 4.3p. The challenging performance of two of its three divisions, particularly the First Derivative consulting services arm and MRP enterprise sales segment, contributed to the overall downturn. Despite the disappointing financial performance and a downgrade to full-year guidance, FD Technologies is expected to benefit from an improving operating outlook in the coming years. While acknowledging the inherent risks, it maintains its place in the portfolio.

In summary, Tristel's robust balance sheet, positive financial performance, and clear catalysts for share price appreciation position it favorably. Meanwhile, FD Technologies faces challenges but is anticipated to leverage an improved operating environment. Both companies warrant a "hold" in the Questor IHT portfolio, each embodying a distinctive trajectory in the current investment landscape.

In conclusion, the Questor IHT portfolio navigates a dynamic landscape with distinct trajectories for its holdings. Tristel's resilience, evidenced by robust financials and positive catalysts, positions it as a stalwart with promising capital growth prospects. Despite a decline in the wider market, Tristel maintains a strong foothold.

Conversely, FD Technologies grapples with challenges, reflected in a significant share decline and a disappointing financial performance. However, the prospect of an improved operating outlook in the coming years underscores its potential for recovery. While acknowledging the inherent risks, FD Technologies retains its place in the portfolio.

As the portfolio continues its journey, the contrasting fortunes of Tristel and FD Technologies highlight the dynamic nature of investment. Each company's trajectory reflects unique market dynamics, providing investors with a diversified perspective. The "hold" recommendation underscores a strategic approach, allowing for potential growth and recovery in the evolving investment landscape.


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